The
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
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Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar Location(s):
Regional Weather: Friday, January 3 TX/OK/AR: High pressure builds over the region and will bring mild conditions with warming temperatures and sunny skies. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer today and tomorrow with lite winds being from the south to southwest today and a more westerly flow tomorrow. Skies will be clear and sunny for the next two days with a chance of some high clouds to the north near Kansas. In Texas temperatures will reach the upper 50s to low 60s from north to south and winds will be light, under 5 miles per hour to the east and 10 miles per hour to the west. Skies will be sunny and clear today with dry, low humidity readings. High temperatures will be 5 to 7 degrees warmer tomorrow. Overnight, clear skies and dry conditions will result in low temperatures near freezing with a freeze warning in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Hill country. To the north conditions will be colder with temperatures reaching the low to mid 50s today but near 60 tomorrow. Sunny conditions, low humidity and light winds from the northwest will prevail. Clearing skies and cold temperatures will drop conditions into the mid 30s overnight then a gradual warming will occur tomorrow with temperatures 5 to 7 degrees above today. However the chance of some high clouds increase across the northern region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the northeast over the northeastern portion of the state towards southern Arkansas and points eastward. The upper elevation winds become caught in the jet stream which pushes them quickly towards the Appalachians and on towards the east coast. The trajectories from the western portion of the state move towards the northeast on light winds and remain within the Texas region. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics that have been associated with entrainment and travel of pollen that has been released into the atmosphere. Conditions at the sources will be warming today with dry, sunny clear skies. The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season and with good conditions, pollen release is expected with downwind travel.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today ***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Clear, sunny skies with dry conditions and warm temperatures coupled with light winds across the region result in favorable conditions for pollen release today. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. Trajectory characteristics show good atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind resulting in a severe threat across the region. Across the region the air movement will be towards the northeast with longer trajectories from the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau than across the western region. Therefore the communities along the eastern edge of the populations (Dallas, Waco, Austin) should expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere. With the warm conditions during the day and quick cooling at night pollen in the atmosphere will quickly settle and this may lead to significant amounts of pollen moving off of the plateau, therefore high levels may also be seen along the southern edge of the source area in San Antonio, New Braunfels, and San Marcos.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by *
on map):
Junction, TX
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience,
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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